Nigeria’s Petrol Landing Cost Falls Once More | What It Means for Fuel Prices

In yet another surprising development for Nigeria’s energy sector, the landing cost of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, has reportedly decreased again, sparking discussions about potential relief at the pump for consumers. As of March 19, 2025, industry insiders have revealed that the cost of importing this essential fuel has dipped to ₦797.66 per litre, a notable drop attributed to increased competition among petroleum marketers. This shift comes at a pivotal time for Nigeria, where fuel prices have long been a contentious issue affecting millions of households and businesses.

A Fresh Drop in Petrol Landing Costs

The Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) highlighted this reduction in its latest energy bulletin, noting that the landing cost of imported petrol has fallen by ₦20.16 from its previous mark of ₦817.82 per litre. This decline follows a broader trend of fluctuating fuel import costs, influenced by global oil prices, exchange rates, and market dynamics. The current figure of ₦797.66 per litre reflects a competitive push among marketers, who are navigating a deregulated market where pricing is increasingly dictated by supply and demand rather than government intervention.

This isn’t the first time in recent months that petrol landing costs have trended downward. Earlier reports in 2025 indicated a steady decline from highs above ₦900 per litre, driven partly by falling global crude oil prices—Brent crude, a key benchmark, has hovered around $70 per barrel—and a relatively stabilized naira exchange rate, pegged at approximately ₦1,517 to the dollar in this calculation. For a country heavily reliant on imported fuel despite its vast oil reserves, such shifts carry significant implications.

Why the Drop Matters

The landing cost of petrol represents the total expense incurred to bring the product into Nigeria, including the cost of the fuel itself on the international market, shipping fees, import duties, and other levies. When this cost decreases, it theoretically opens the door for lower pump prices, provided marketers pass on the savings to consumers. In this case, the ₦797.66 per litre figure is well below the current retail prices, which range between ₦860 and ₦1,025 per litre in cities like Lagos and Abuja, depending on the seller—be it the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), Dangote Refinery, or independent marketers.

This disparity has reignited debates about pricing transparency and the lingering effects of fuel subsidy removal, a policy fully implemented in 2023 under President Bola Tinubu’s administration. While subsidies once kept pump prices artificially low, their elimination exposed Nigerians to the full brunt of market forces. The recent drop in landing costs, however, suggests that competition—particularly with the entry of Dangote Refinery into the market—could temper the volatility that has characterized fuel pricing in recent years.

Competition Heats Up in the Downstream Sector

The ongoing rivalry between Dangote Refinery and traditional importers, including NNPC and private depot owners, appears to be a driving force behind this latest price adjustment. Dangote, which began rolling out locally refined petrol in late 2024, has consistently lowered its ex-depot prices—most recently to ₦815 per litre—prompting importers to rethink their strategies. With imported petrol now landing at ₦797.66 per litre, some marketers are reportedly opting for foreign supplies over refinery purchases, as the lower cost offsets logistical expenses and offers a competitive edge.

This price war has introduced a new dynamic to Nigeria’s downstream oil sector. For years, the country’s dependence on imported fuel—despite being Africa’s largest oil producer—created a monopoly-like environment for marketers, often leading to inflated prices. The emergence of domestic refining capacity, coupled with global market shifts, is challenging that status quo, potentially benefiting consumers in the long run.

Will Pump Prices Follow Suit?

The big question on everyone’s mind is whether this reduction in landing costs will translate to cheaper fuel at filling stations. Industry experts are cautiously optimistic, projecting that pump prices could dip to around ₦800 per litre in the coming weeks if the trend holds. However, several factors could delay or derail this outcome. Marketers with existing high-cost inventory may resist immediate price cuts to avoid losses, while exchange rate fluctuations or unexpected geopolitical events could push import costs back up.

Public sentiment, as reflected on platforms like X, ranges from hope to skepticism. Many Nigerians recall how previous drops in landing costs didn’t always lead to proportional relief at the pump, with accusations of price gouging frequently leveled at marketers. The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) has also weighed in, accusing some players of artificially inflating prices despite favorable market conditions—a charge that underscores the need for greater oversight in a deregulated system.

Broader Implications for Nigeria

Beyond the immediate impact on fuel prices, this development highlights the evolving nature of Nigeria’s energy landscape. The interplay between local refining and importation, coupled with federal policies, will shape the sector’s future. For now, the drop to ₦797.66 per litre offers a glimmer of hope in a country where fuel costs ripple through every facet of life—from transportation and manufacturing to household budgets.

As the situation unfolds, stakeholders—government, marketers, and citizens alike—will be watching closely. Will this latest decrease mark the beginning of sustained affordability, or is it merely a fleeting reprieve in an unpredictable market? Only time will tell, but for now, Nigeria’s petrol saga continues to captivate and confound in equal measure.