Lagos Assembly Crisis Deepens Despite Tinubu’s Intervention: Obasa’s Leadership Remains Contested

The Lagos State House of Assembly is grappling with an escalating leadership crisis that has defied resolution, even after a high-profile intervention by President Bola Tinubu. On March 12, 2025, Tinubu convened a meeting in Abuja with all 40 members of the Assembly to broker peace between two warring factions led by Mudashiru Obasa and Mojisola Meranda. However, as of March 17, 2025, tensions remain high, and the impasse shows no signs of abating, raising questions about Tinubu’s political influence in his home state and the stability of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Lagos. This article examines the root causes of the crisis, the outcomes of Tinubu’s intervention, the ongoing disputes, and the broader implications for Lagos politics.

Background: The Genesis of the Crisis

The crisis erupted on January 13, 2025, when 35 of the 40 lawmakers in the Lagos State House of Assembly voted to impeach Mudashiru Obasa as Speaker. Obasa, a long-standing ally of Tinubu and a prominent figure in Lagos politics, faced allegations of high-handedness, financial mismanagement, and authoritarian leadership. In his place, the lawmakers elected Mojisola Meranda, the Deputy Speaker, as the new Speaker, marking a historic moment as she became the first female to hold the position in the state.

Obasa’s removal sent shockwaves through the APC, given his deep ties to Tinubu, who has maintained significant control over Lagos politics for decades. The impeachment was seen by some as a rebellion against Tinubu’s influence, particularly as it occurred without his prior consultation. In response, Tinubu and other APC leaders, including members of the Governance Advisory Council (GAC), launched efforts to reinstate Obasa, viewing his ousting as a threat to party unity and Tinubu’s authority.

Tinubu’s Abuja Meeting: A Failed Peace Accord

On March 12, 2025, President Tinubu summoned all Lagos Assembly lawmakers to the Presidential Villa in Abuja for an emergency meeting aimed at resolving the leadership tussle. The lawmakers arrived in two groups: Meranda and her supporters in coaster buses, and Obasa arriving separately, signaling the deep divisions within the Assembly. The meeting, which lasted over two hours, was held behind closed doors, but sources indicate that Tinubu urged the lawmakers to reconcile and work with Obasa as Speaker.

Reports suggest that Tinubu brokered a tentative agreement: Meranda would step down as Speaker, allowing Obasa to resume his role, with the understanding that he would later resign to facilitate a “soft landing” and maintain political balance. On March 3, 2025, Meranda resigned and was re-elected as Deputy Speaker, paving the way for Obasa’s reinstatement. However, Tinubu’s directive during the March 12 meeting shifted away from this earlier plan, as he reportedly instructed lawmakers to support Obasa unconditionally and directed Obasa to withdraw a pending lawsuit challenging his impeachment.

Despite these efforts, the peace accord has failed to calm the storm. Tensions have persisted, with lawmakers and stakeholders divided over Obasa’s leadership and the legitimacy of his reinstatement. The crisis has been further complicated by allegations of financial impropriety, notably a contentious N7 billion contract for the purchase of SUVs, which has become a flashpoint in the dispute.

The SUV Contract Controversy

A significant point of contention revolves around a N7 billion contract for the purchase of luxury vehicles for Assembly members, approved by Obasa in December 2024 before his impeachment. After his removal, Meranda proceeded with the purchase, acquiring 32 Toyota Prado SUVs and seven Toyota Landcruiser vehicles for N5 billion—a move she claimed saved N2 billion compared to Obasa’s plan to import the vehicles from Dubai. Obasa has contested this decision, arguing that the purchase was made without his authorization as Speaker and that he had already secured a bidder for the original contract.

Meranda’s supporters counter that her actions were a cost-saving measure and that the vehicles were sourced locally, aligning with economic prudence. They also note that she did not allocate a vehicle to the Speaker’s office, which she occupied, as a sign of her commitment to fairness. This disagreement has fueled legal battles, with Obasa dragging Meranda, 33 lawmakers, and the Assembly to the Lagos State High Court to challenge his removal and the financial decisions made in his absence.

Escalating Tensions and Public Backlash

The crisis has taken a dramatic turn with physical confrontations and public displays of defiance. On February 27, 2025, Obasa stormed the Assembly complex with armed police and civil defense personnel, forcing open the chamber doors to preside over a plenary session attended by only four loyal lawmakers. This move was widely condemned as a “show of shame” by Meranda and her supporters, who boycotted the session and held a rival plenary in the Assembly’s garden, reaffirming their vote of confidence in her leadership.

Public reaction has been mixed but vocal. The De-Renaissance Patriots Foundation, a pro-indigenous group, has called for Obasa to step down, arguing that his actions undermine democracy and the rule of law. Major General Tajudeen Olanrewaju (Retd), a prominent figure in the group, warned that Obasa’s reinstatement through Tinubu’s intervention could position him as the de facto APC leader in Lagos, potentially threatening Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu’s authority. Meanwhile, opposition figures like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar have criticized Tinubu’s silence and perceived endorsement of anti-democratic tactics, likening the situation to military-era authoritarianism.

Why the Crisis Persists

Several factors explain why Tinubu’s intervention has failed to resolve the impasse:

1. Deep-Seated Divisions: The Assembly is split between Obasa’s loyalists and Meranda’s supporters, with 36 lawmakers consistently backing her leadership. This overwhelming majority indicates a significant loss of confidence in Obasa, which Tinubu’s directive has not addressed.
2. Tinubu’s Waning Influence: The refusal of lawmakers to fully comply with Tinubu’s instructions suggests a decline in his political dominance in Lagos, a state he has controlled for over two decades. This resistance is seen as a test of his authority, especially as he prepares for a potential re-election bid in 2027.
3. Financial Allegations: The unresolved dispute over the SUV contract and broader allegations of financial mismanagement against Obasa continue to fuel distrust among lawmakers and the public, undermining efforts to restore unity.
4. Political Ambitions: The crisis is intertwined with broader political rivalries within the APC, including the 2027 governorship succession battle. Obasa’s perceived ambition to position himself as a contender has alienated some lawmakers and party stakeholders, who see his reinstatement as a power grab.

Broader Implications for Lagos and Tinubu

The deepening crisis in the Lagos Assembly has significant implications for both the state and Tinubu’s political future:

• Governance Disruption: The ongoing impasse has paralyzed legislative activities, with the Assembly on indefinite recess and unable to address pressing state issues. This dysfunction could hinder Governor Sanwo-Olu’s administration and erode public confidence in the APC.
• Tinubu’s Political Capital: Lagos has been Tinubu’s political stronghold, but his inability to resolve this crisis—and his loss of the state in the 2023 presidential election—raises questions about his ability to maintain control. This could weaken his position within the APC and impact his 2027 re-election prospects.
• APC Unity: The divisions within the Lagos APC, including splits within the GAC and among lawmakers, threaten the party’s cohesion. If unresolved, this crisis could embolden opposition parties like the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party to challenge the APC’s dominance in Lagos.
• Democratic Integrity: The use of security forces to enforce Obasa’s return and the overriding of the lawmakers’ majority vote have sparked concerns about democratic backsliding in Lagos, a state often seen as a model of progressive governance.

Potential Paths Forward

Resolving the crisis will require a multi-faceted approach:

1. Dialogue and Compromise: Tinubu and APC leaders must facilitate genuine dialogue between the factions, addressing the lawmakers’ grievances rather than imposing solutions. A compromise candidate for Speaker could help bridge the divide.
2. Transparency on Financial Issues: An independent audit of the Assembly’s finances, particularly the SUV contract, could clarify allegations of mismanagement and restore trust among lawmakers and the public.
3. Legal Resolution: The pending court case should be allowed to run its course, providing a legal framework to determine the legitimacy of Obasa’s removal and reinstatement. This would reinforce the rule of law and democratic principles.
4. Party Discipline: The APC must enforce internal discipline to prevent further escalation, ensuring that personal ambitions do not undermine party unity or governance in Lagos.

Conclusion: A Test of Leadership and Legacy

The failure of Tinubu’s Abuja meeting to calm the Lagos Assembly impasse underscores the complexity of the crisis and the challenges facing his political legacy. What began as an internal leadership dispute has evolved into a broader test of Tinubu’s influence, the APC’s cohesion, and the integrity of democratic institutions in Lagos. As of March 17, 2025, the situation remains fluid, with Obasa clinging to power amid fierce opposition from the majority of lawmakers and growing public discontent.

For Tinubu, resolving this crisis is not just about restoring order in the Assembly but also about reaffirming his authority in Lagos, a critical base for his national ambitions. For the lawmakers and the people of Lagos, it is about ensuring that their voices are heard and that governance reflects democratic values rather than political expediency. As the crisis deepens, the stakes continue to rise, making a swift and equitable resolution imperative for the future of Lagos politics.